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Notes On Final Cuts and More

March 28th, 2011 · No Comments · Random Notes

Here are some notes from the day of final cuts:

  • Jesus Montero and Austin Romine were optioned to Triple A and Double A, respectively giving Gustavo Molina the back up catcher job until Francisco Cervelli comes back from his injury.  The Yankees want the two of them to get daily playing time.
  • Eric Chavez signed a major league deal today and will make the team as the back up corner infielder.  Ronnie Belliard was released.
  • Ramiro Pena was also optioned to Triple A which means that Eduardo Nunez will round out the bench as the utility man.
  • Pedro Feliciano will start the season on the disabled list and it looks like Steve Garrison will be taking his spot until he gets back.
  • Curtis Granderson couldn’t participate in any drills today because of the rain and it looks iffy for him being ready for Opening Day, although a DL stint is probably not going to happen.
  • A Japanese team bought the rights to the out-of-options Romulo Sanchez.
  • Francisco Cervelli will be out of his walking boot either today or tomorrow so he should be resuming baseball activity soon.
  • Alex Rodriguez says he plans on playing 150 games this year.  I’ll believe it when I see it.
  • Mark Prior will stay with the Tampa team to get back to MLB form.

 

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2011 Lineup Projections And Preview

March 28th, 2011 · No Comments · Lineup, Projections

We are finally only three days away from Opening Day and with that being said, let’s take a look at the projected numbers for the nine Yankee starters.  These numbers are the PECOTA projections for the 2011 season and I got them via another Yankee blog (Its About the Money Stupid).  Here they are:

Before I analyze some of the players individually, I’m going to look at the team at whole.  With 190 homers hit by the entire team, each player averages over twenty, which is kind of ridiculous, but doable.  Also, you gotta love that team on-base percentage at .344.  It shows that this is a big part of the team which is a very good thing because it is something that the Yankees team’s of the late 1990′s did very well.  They worked counts, got on base, and got into the other team’s bullpen.

Brett Gardner

I think the hitting numbers are just about right for Gardy, but I think he will steal more than forty bags.  He is the only very real steal threat in this lineup and Joe Girardi wants to use that as much as possible.  Plus, if he hits lead off more often this year with Jeter batting second, he will probably be given the steal sign a lot more to keep out of the double play.  I think the batting average is accurate though and I think the OBP is dead-on because although I think Gardner does get on base a lot, I don’t think he will be a career .383 OBP guy.

Derek Jeter

The captain obviously wants to put last season, his contract negotiation, and what position he will playing in the future behind him and I think he will.  He has been working all winter long with hitting coach Kevin Long and has had a very good spring hitting more line drives.  His line at .281/.350/.389 sounds just about right to me.  He’ll definitely hit for a better average, which will raise his OBP.  Look for a bounce back year from Derek.  The only slump I see him having is when he is trying for his 74th hit of the season, the hit that will give 3000 for his career.

Mark Teixeira

This is the only one that I think is dead on.  I think Tex will hit just around that as far as his average, OBP, and slugging percentage.  I also think his homers and runs batted in are pretty accurate.  If he has a year like this and continues to do his magic with the glove, I will be very happy, we just have to look out for that slow start, which is something he needs to cut down on a little.

Alex Rodriguez

Sure A-Rod had an ‘off’ year average wise, but I think 30 homers and 100 RBI’s was pretty productive.  And as good as that was, he look better than ever in Spring Training, batting over .400 with six homers.  He is as locked-in as ever and it shows.  Alex says he owes to Kevin Long and the fact that he was fully healthy this winter for the first time in a couple years so he was able to fully work out.  I would expect him to drive in more runs than PECOTA projected and hit for a higher average, but expect this to be his last big season.

Robinson Cano

Although Robbie had a break out year in 2010, don’t expect him to be as good in 2011.  I’m not saying he will fall flat on his face, but I don’t think he will be a legitimate MVP candidate.I think he’ll hit over .299 (what PECOTA predicted), but expect a small step down in the power department because unlike K-Long predicted, Cano will not be a 40 homer guy.  The numbers are just about spot on besides batting average.

So effortless. (Behrman/AP)

Nick Swisher

Swish had a huge year last season and probably the best of his career.  The power number projected are pretty on-target, but he hit .289 last season so for the average to drop that much, something big would have had to happen, which I just don’t see.  I don’t think he is a .289 hitter, but to fall that low is just ridiculous.  I expect around a .270 average out of him and also maybe a little higher of an on-base percentage.

Jorge Posada

Sure Jorge Posada has had his share of injuries over the past few seasons, but he has proven that there is still some life in his bat.  With the transition from catcher to designated hitter, I expect Posada to be a lot healthier and have better offensive numbers.  This being said, I think these projections are a little low.  I expect something more like .270/.360/.455.  I know it’s not a big change, but don’t see the batting average being that low, and with that, the other two numbers will rise.  Another factor in my belief that Posada will have a good year is that this is the last year on his current contract and with Jesus Montero coming up and not looking great behind the plate, the Yanks might want to keep that youth trend going.  Jorge will have to prove that he is still a viable offensive option or it could ugly next winter.

Curtis Granderson

When the Bombers first got the Grandy man from the Tigers last year, I was pretty low on him and didn’t like the trade one bit.  But after a full season with him and watching him on and off the field, I have realized that the Yanks have one of the best center fielder’s in the game.  Of course it is more by default than anything else, but he is still a solid player who I think will have a great year.  I think PECOTA got it just right with him, although I hope the average is a little higher.

Russell Martin

I know that Martin is coming off of knee surgery and a season in which he only played 93 games, but remember that this guy was once a very good offensive player with the Dodgers.  Being plugged into a very good lineup should only help him.  I think he’ll hit more like 15 homers and hit around .280 because remember he is entering what should be the prime of his career at the age of 28.  For more on how I feel about the Yanks new catcher, click here.

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Poll Result: Joba Most Likely To Be Traded

March 28th, 2011 · No Comments · Poll

According to the fans, out of Russell Martin, Joba Chamberlain, and Ivan Nova, Chamberlain is the most likely to be traded this season.  This makes sense for two reasons.  First of all, with the inability of the Yankees younger catchers to show that they were ready, it looks like Martin will be a Yankee for the entire season out of necessity.  This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but he could have been a good trading chip.  Nova, who could have been another nice chip, had a fantastic spring and now as the number four starter, will probably be a Yankee for at least the rest of the year barring some type of crazy situation in which the Yanks have a chance at landing a great pitcher at the trade deadline.

The other reason Joba could be traded is that this could be his last year with value.  At 25 years old, he is what he is for the most part and not much can change.  The Twins have been quoted as saying they would like to add another arm to the back of their pen.  It is also known that Minnesota has a surplus of starting pitching so maybe a deal with that structure can get done.

Make sure you vote on the new poll: How many starts will Freddy Garcia make?

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Notes From Today’s Game And More

March 27th, 2011 · No Comments · Random Notes

Here are some notes from today:

  • The Yankees lost to the Twins today 7-6.  Robinson Cano and Austin Romine both went deep.  They used eight pitchers, each of which don’t have a shot to make the MLB roster.  Pat Venditte actually made an appearance, the switch-throwing pitcher.  The box score is here.
  • Curtis Granderson had a ‘good day’ today as Joe Girardi called it.  He did some running drills, took some swings, and did some throwing.  He is still a question mark for Opening Day though.
  • Chris Dickerson took some BP today, but is still unsure if he just cramped in yesterday’s game or whether he strained his hamstring.
  • As we inch closer and closer to Opening Day, it looks more and more as if Pedro Feliciano will not be ready.
  • The Astros returned rule 5 draft pick and relief pitcher Lance Pendleton to the Yanks.
  • In an interview today, Girardi hinted at the fact that there could be a deal in the works in which the Bombers would unload relief pitcher Romulo Sanchez.  Sanchez is out of options and is a long shot to make the team so don’t expect to get to much value back for him because team’s know that the Yanks are desperate, although the same could have been said about Sergio Mitre.

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    Yankees Talk Podcast- March 27, 2011

    March 27th, 2011 · No Comments · Podcast

    As I said in last week’s podcast, this one might come out on Sunday and it has.  I hope you enjoy it even though it ran pretty long this week.  Here are the topics that Rob and I discuss:

    1. My trip to Tampa
    2. The settlement of the pitching
    3. Injuries
    4. MLB Preview
    5. Jonathan Papelbon

    You can listen to it here.

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    Yankees vs. Pirates Game Notes

    March 27th, 2011 · No Comments · Game Recap

    Yesterday, the Yankees beat the Pirates by a score of 4-2.  Here are some key notes from the game:

    • Manny Banuelos started for the Yankees going three innings while giving up two hits, one run, and walking three.  His control wasn’t great, but his stuff still was.
    • Alex Rodriguez kept his hot spring going by hitting a 2-run homer in the first, good for his sixth of Spring Training.
    • Everybody got work in yesterday including Mariano Rivera, Luis Ayala, Mark Prior, and pitching on back-to-back days Rafael Soriano, Boone Logan, David Robertson, and Joba Chamberlain.
    • Chris Dickerson, acquired from the Brewers in the Sergio Mitre trade, made his Yankee debut going 3 for 3, but left early with a hamstring cramp.  If Curtis Granderson starts the year on the DL, Dickerson could make the team as the fourth outfielder.
    • Here is the full box score.

    The Yankees visit the Twins today, but the game will not be televised.

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      Injury Reports

      March 26th, 2011 · No Comments · injury report

      The Yankees have had a very good spring.  The starting pitching and bench competitions have both gone well, age doesn’t seem to be catching up with them too much, and Alex Rodriguez is hitting the cover off the ball.  What’s not to like?  Well, the one thing that i wish could change is the amount of injuries that they have had to deal with.  Sergio Mitre, Joba Chamberlain, Greg Golson, and Curtis Granderson have all had to deal with oblique injuries at some point, Colin Curtis hurt his shoulder and is out for the entire spring, and Pedro Feliciano and Boone Logan have each had to deal with arm injuries.

      The Yanks need the Grandy man back ASAP. (AP)

      Although most of these guys are once again healthy, two very important keys are still not.  Curtis Granderson strained his oblique last week during batting practice and although it first came off as a small thing, the Yanks are taking it slow and after soft tossing and hitting off of a tee today, he says that he is 50-50 for Opening Day on Thursday.  In this case, newly acquired Chris Dickerson may make the team as the fourth outfielder since he is a left handed bat.  Pedro Feliciano, the recent lefty relief addition, is suffering from a case of dead arm, something that Javier Vazquez went through at the end of last season.  There have been rumblings today that he has a good chance of starting the season on the disabled list.  In this case, Boone Logan would have to pick up most of the southpaw slack in the bullpen and Mark prior might actually make the team, although I doubt it.

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      The Rotation Is Settled

      March 26th, 2011 · No Comments · Position Spotlight

      The one thing that was unsettled for the 2011 Yankees coming into Spring Training was their starting rotation.  After missing out on Cliff Lee, they signed a lot of low risk and low reward guys to compete for the remaining two spots.  Critics said that the candidates were either too old, too young, too fat, or too bad.  However, the competition came down to the final week of the spring with three of the candidates pitching at least decently, and fighting for the two spots.

      The big guy was robbed. (Krupa/AP)

      Sergio Mitre, the fourth guy in the mix who was just kind of there for show was traded to the Brewers yesterday which assured the other three pitchers that they had jobs, whether it be in the rotation or the bullpen.  Ivan Nova, the youngest of the three, was a shoe-in to get the number four spot as he had dominated in almost all of his starts except for one.  So it came down to Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia for the last spot.  Either round out the rotation or be banished to the bullpen.

      Before we look at the result, let’s take a look at the numbers.  For the spring, Garcia was 1-1 with a 5.93 ERA in 13.2 IP, while striking out 12, walking two, and posting a WHIP of 1.10.  Colon on the other hand was 1-0 with a 2.40 ERA in 15.0 IP, while striking out 17, walking one, and posting a 0.73 WHIP.  Based on the numbers who should have gotten the last rotation spot?

      Yes Colon deserved it, but Garcia got it, something I don’t really understand.  Why not use the hot hand in Colon as long as you can until he burns out and then plug in Garcia if you have to?  His numbers are better and he has dominated in Spring Training, much more so than Garcia.  This tweet by Mike Axisa of River Ave Blues sums it up best:

      “Hey Bartolo, you completely outpitched Freddy and we know there are only so many bullets in that arm, so we’re going to put you in the pen”

      I guess the way that Brian Cashman and Joe Girardi are looking at it is that they want to keep Colon for the entire year and the way to preserve him for that long is to keep him in the pen.  The one thing I don’t understand is that this does not allow the Yankees to use their great depth in starting pitching/long relief.  The signing of Kevin Millwood yesterday added to the already large stack of pitchers including Hector Noesi, Andrew Brackman, David Phelps, and Adam Warren, all of whom are capable of being plugged into that long relief spot in they are needed.

      Yes Freddy, we are all confused as to why you got the final rotation spot also. (AP Photo/David Goldman)

      The ridiculousness of this move has people wondering if Colon even had a shot to make the rotation at all.  Garcia was the clear favorite to win the last spot from the start.  He was the only one of the four original candidates to have pitched a full season in the MLB last year.  At least I can take solace in the fact that my prediction from the last podcast was right, even if I changed it between then and this morning.

       

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      Today’s Notes

      March 25th, 2011 · No Comments · Random Notes

      Here are some notes from a very eventful day:

      • The Yankees beat the Astros tonight by a score of 6-4.  Ivan Nova gave up two runs in six innings on three hits, basically solidifying that number four spot in the starting rotation.  On the offensive side of things, Russell Martin had a 2-run triple and Brett Gardner hit a 2-run homer.  The box score is here.
      • The Yankees and Kevin Millwood agreed to a minor league contract worth $1.5 if he makes the team.  He has an opt-out date for May 1 so we will see what happens until then.  Good job to Brian Cashman who held out until Millwood finally accepted a minor league deal.
      • The Yankees also traded Sergio Mitre to the Brewers for left handed hitting outfielder Chris Dickerson.  This shows that all three of the legitimate candidates fighting for starting rotation spots (Bartolo Colon, Nova, and Freddy Garcia) will make the team.  Dickerson may start the year with the Yankees if Curtis Granderson misses more time due to his oblique injury.
      • Scouts have noted that Phil Hughes has lost some velocity on his fastball which is usually in the low 90′s, but has been clocked in the 87-89 range so far this spring.  The Yanks say they aren’t too worried about it because the same thing happened last season.  It is something to look out for though because Hughes threw 80.1 more innings in 2010 than he did in 2009.
      • Many have also been reporting that Gustavo Molina is the favorite to win the back up catcher job.  Both Austin Romine and Jesus Montero have made it clear that they need more time in the minors by their numbers.  Cashman says he likes Molina’s major league experience.

      Now on to my day.  I started off by going to the minor league complex where I got a press pass and walked around near the fields.  I was able to meet top catching prospect Gary Sanchez and I saw a lot of good, young players take batting practice, most notably JR Murphy.  I was also able to meet a couple of scouts, including one from Europe who was very interesting.  The Yanks are one of the first teams to start scouting in Europe and each and every year, more and more players gets signed from over there.  Then, I went to tonight’s game and saw the Yankees win.  Overall, it was a good day.  I will be at tomorrow’s game against the Pirates also with Manny Banuelos on the hill, so that should be just as fun.

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      Yanks And Millwood Close To Minor League Deal

      March 25th, 2011 · No Comments · hot stove

      After a long winter of hot and cold talks between the Yankees and starting pitcher Kevin Millwood, there finally seems to be some concrete negotiating going on.  Jon Heyman of SI tweeted last night that the two sides were close to a minor league deal full of incentives.  I really don’t see the point of this move at this point in the spring.

      Kevin Millwood is definitely not the answer. (Leon Halip/Getty Images)

      The Yankees already have three guys (not counting Sergio Mitre) fighting for the two spots in the back of the starting rotation.  The three candidates, Ivan Nova, Bartolo Colon, and Freddy Garcia, all have pitched very well and it is still not quite clear who will win the jobs.  This brings us back to Millwood.  Why?  He has only been clocked at 85 with his fastball.  Well, the only reason I can think of is the fact that Brian Cashman wasn’t really encouraged from the performances of David Phelps, Hector Noesi, and Adam Warren this spring.  These are the guys who make up the first tier of pitchers who will be called up in the case of an emergency.  Millwood gives them another option in this sense.

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